- Bitcoin price holding the strategically important 50-week simple moving average (SMA) after a breakout from a rising wedge.
- Ethereum price continues to hold the ascending 2020 trend line after a breakout from a rising wedge.
- XRP price widening trading range, but remains dead money for long-term investors.
Bitcoin price breakout from the rising wedge does assert downside pressure on the flagship cryptocurrency, but support levels abound below the current price. Ethereum price action is governed by a developing descending triangle that began on May 20. Meanwhile, XRP price remains directionless, offering no clues about long-term intentions and frustrating investors seeking the explosive gains that marked trading until the April high.
Bitcoin price churn should continue until precise levels are broken
On May 19, Bitcoin price closed at $36,731 after reaching an intra-day low at the psychologically important $30,000. Currently, BTC is trading at $33,604, indicating that the flagship cryptocurrency is actually down 8.5% over the last 50 trading days and proving that price pays, not spectacularly articulated visions of the future. In fact, if market operators had focused on Bitcoin price, they would have enjoyed several swings of 20-30%, generating sizable portfolio outcomes. Hence, there are times to sail and times to row.
Yesterday, Bitcoin price fell from a rising wedge pattern that had ruled BTC since the June 22 low of $28,800, raising the probability that the risk for the digital asset is tilted to the downside for the foreseeable future.
The measured move of the rising wedge pattern is 27%, indicating an ultimate Bitcoin price low of $25,000 for this leg lower. It would be a convincing blow to the lingering BTC bullish narrative and, more importantly, turn the formidable support around $30,000 into a stressing level of resistance for any rebound attempts.
The BTC decline would also confirm the breakdown from the larger head-and-shoulders pattern, first triggered on June 22, and dismantle the support gifted by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally at $27,175.
To avoid the bearish outcome, Bitcoin price needs to hold the 50-week SMA at $31,445 and the head-and-shoulders neckline at $30,600 on a weekly closing basis.
BTC/USD daily chart
Unless Bitcoin price can register a daily close above the wedge’s upper trend line and the Anchored VWAP from October 21 at $37,706, it is anticipated that BTC will, at best, continue the churn that has dominated the trading since May 19.
Here, FXStreet’s analysts evaluate where BTC could be heading next as it seems bound for a rebound.
Ethereum price sticks at support, but a bearish tone still prevails
Ethereum price closed yesterday below the lower trend line of a rising wedge pattern at $2,330, resolving the price structure that had commanded ETH since the June 22 low. Moreover,…