- Bitcoin price gains 1.66% for the week but registers the lowest weekly volume since the beginning of April.
- Ethereum price logs a 17.05% gain for the week, marking the best week since the beginning of April, but volume evaporates.
- XRP price jumps 7.28% for the week, holds crucial $0.65 level, but weekly volume is the lowest since October 2020.
Bitcoin price creates a new line in the sand between $35,000-$35,000 as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) converges. Ethereum price about to collide with the 50-day SMA while trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020-May 2021 advance at $2,237. XRP price slips into a new trading range between $0.650-$0.740 after triggering a rising wedge pattern on July 1.
Bitcoin price questions abound, but answers difficult to find
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin price staged an impressive rebound from the dominant $30,000 level, marking the third time in the previous six weeks. Due to the velocity of the rebound and solid weekly close in the form of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern, it appeared that BTC was communicating a keen interest and robust demand from prominent investors.
Adding to the optimism was the complete Elliot five wave down pattern and the bullish momentum divergence on the daily Relative Strength (RSI), combined with the Mayer Multiple showing that BTC was cheap relative to its long-term trend.
However, Bitcoin price failed to capitalize on the momentum and closed last week with a 1.66% gain, despite triggering the hammer pattern with a trade and daily close above $35,741 on June 29. The weekly volume was the lowest since the beginning of April, showing an absence of a bid and a return to uncertainty.
Since June 22, Bitcoin price has printed higher lows, creating a minor rising trendline while struggling to accumulate traction above $35,000-$35,500, thereby printing mildly higher highs. Overall, the price action has been corrective, with the 50-day SMA now converging, adding downward pressure on BTC and presenting a new technical barrier for the flagship cryptocurrency.
At this point, Bitcoin price needs a daily close above the 50-day SMA at $36,359 and the anchored VWAP from October 21, 2020, at $37,732 before consideration can be given to a new long position.
BTC/USD daily chart
It is worth reiterating that Bitcoin price did trigger the neckline of a larger head-and-shoulders pattern on June 22. The pattern will remain active until BTC trades above the right shoulder high of $41,332. Moreover, the digital asset did confirm a bearish Death Cross pattern on June 19 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
On June 28, the probabilities were stacked in favor of further upside. Still, this past week has put the burden of proof back on the bulls as BTC lost conviction and momentum, both critical to overcoming the growing resistance at $35,000-$35,500. For now, Bitcoin price is trading like it is quicksand.