First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The U.S. economy is not just in recession. It’s flying down at a breakneck speed. The decline in US GDP in the second quarter was the largest ever recorded – minus 32.9%. The reasons for this fall are well known – these are quarantine measures caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The authorities hope they can stop the spread of COVID-19 without turning the economy to zero. Some states have managed to tighten quarantines without restricting economic activity and to achieve a smoothing of the incidence curve.
However, there are hopes and there is a reality – the same minus 32.9%, which plunged investors into a real shock, causing a simultaneous fall in both the US dollar and stock indices. While these two indicators were going in antiphase in spring – the USD index (DXY) grew, when the Nasdaq and the S&P500 fell, and vice versa, now they all fell.
In contrast to the United States, things in Europe turned out to be not so bad, as evidenced by the macroeconomic indicators published last week. Germany’s GDP fell by only 10.1% in absolute terms, and in the Eurozone – by 12.1%, the data on GDP and consumer spending of France, as well as retail sales in Germany look rather optimistic, which contributes to the strengthening of the European currency.
The EUR/USD pair is growing for the third month in a row, the strongest strengthening since 1998 and the sharpest upward jump in 10 years. In July alone, the euro strengthened against the dollar by 725 points (5.6%), which has not been observed since September 2010. As a result, the pair reached a local high of 1.1908 on Friday 31 July, followed by a pullback on the wave of the monthly profit fixing, and it ended the session at 1.1775;
GBP/USD. Following the EUR/USD, the pair continues to strive up. Over the past week, the pound has slipped the dollar by 380 points, and has almost reached 1.3200, stopping at 1.3170. Then, just like in the case of the euro, the July profit was fixed, and the finish was at 1.3085;
USD/JPY. The Japanese currency has been strengthening its positions for almost the entire week. A particularly noticeable move occurred on Thursday, July 30, following the release of dismal US GDP data. At this point, the pair almost came close to the 104 yen to the dollar mark. However, there was a sharp reversal of the trend on Friday, and it returned almost where it started the five-day period. The final chord was played at 105.90. And thus, the change in the quote for the week was only about 20 points;
cryptocurrencies. What everyone has been waiting for since mid-May, when bitcoin was halved, finally happened. Bitcoin broke through the level of $10,000 in a powerful snatch and stopped, only reaching the height of $11,365, then moved into a sideways trend with gradually fading fluctuations, choosing as Pivot Point the horizon $11,000.
Experts cite the continuing fall of the dollar…